Monday, December 18, 2006

Chelsea will retain the EPL title

Looking into my crystal ball, which for once is crystal clear, I predict that come May, Chelsea will retain their title.

I realize that this statement will probably offend every Manchester United, Liverpool and Arsenal fan out there but when you look at the Blues, besides all their talent, the one characteristic that leaps out and slaps you around the face is their incredible consistency.
With the 'Big Four' now established in their rightful positions in the league table, the race to the title is about maintaining form and avoiding the blips that cost you championships.

Under Jose Mourinho, the Blues simply do not drop unnecessary points. Their home form at Stamford Bridge, where they have not been beaten since February 21, 2004, is the best of any of the 92 clubs in England. On the road, they consistently grind out victories and draws, even from losing positions — truly the mark of champions and reminiscent of United back in their pomp in the '90s.

Sir Alex Ferguson is aware of this and would have been absolutely gutted to lose at West Ham. Their 9-point lead has shrunk faster than a schoolboy's excitement upon learning that his date with the prom queen to the summer dance has been cancelled. United has only been beaten twice but both losses were massive psychological blows.

Firstly, you cannot afford to be beaten at home by Arsenal. Secondly, you can't lose to a club in the relegation zone. Can anyone imagine Chelsea slipping up at Upton Park?

Liverpool is 13 points behind United, which has now decided to start playing properly and is putting a decent run together. A day late and a dollar short is the cliché that comes to mind. By taking close to four months before winning on the road, Benitez has shown that his club doesn't have the nine-month consistency that all championship-winning sides must possess.

After that, it's Chelsea, a team they've not beaten in the league for three years.

I should have included Arsenal in the consistency table because they have aptly demonstrated that they can put similar results together. Five home draws out of a possible nine is a reliability that Honda motorcars would be proud of but when it translates into ten dropped points, I find it hard to agree with Arsene Wenger's assessment that his team is playing well. Ultimately, for the Gunners to challenge for the crown again they'll have to prove that they can win at the Reebok against Bolton — Chelsea gets maximum points there every season, Arsenal doesn't and won't until they get another crack next season.

As you can see, it comes down to the 'blips'. Whether they are big as in the case of Arsenal and Liverpool or relatively small as demonstrated by United, they eventually cost titles. In Mourinho's two years at the helm, Chelsea's 'blips' have occurred in Europe or when the title has already been wrapped up and his players are already thinking of deckchairs and Margaritas.
With a schedule that makes Paris Hilton seem like a challenge, the Blues are on course not only for the treble but for the almost-impossible quadruple and their consistency makes me believe that it is possible.

Look at the wet paper bags coming up for them — Newcastle in the League Cup, the worst team in England, Macclesfield, in the FA Cup, the weakest team in Champions League, FC Porto and EPL matches against Wigan, Reading, Fulham and Villa over the holiday period.

Honestly, which team are they going to lose to? Not one!

The inconsistent three can only look on in envy.